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Meaningful Statistics — Can Your EHR Produce Them?

By Daniel Essin, MA, MD | April 30, 2012

Last week I discussed the fact that today's computers can only handle very simplistic logic. This is unfortunate because most questions that arise in medicine are rarely so simple that they can be correctly represented by a simple true or false. Of course, it is possible to "work around" this limitation by using a whole series of true/false questions. Does the patient smoke? Did you ask whether the patient smokes? Did the patient answer something other than yes or no? If so, what was it? Did the patient refuse to answer? Was the patient capable of answering?

Most of these nit-picking questions are rarely important to a physician reading a chart since the answers can usually be inferred from other portions of the note or from other chart entries. Today's computers are, however, not capable of this sort of inference and since the ambiguity that may attend a simple question about smoking cannot be captured in a single datum it is, for the most part, dispensed with.

(MORE: With EHR Use, Computer Literacy Misses the Point)

For analyses and reports to be meaningful, the denominators must be not only accurate but understood. With a simple yes/no smoking question, determining the denominator can be a challenge. If it had been the case that the answer to any of the supplemental questions would have been remarkable, that patient might or might not have been eligible to be included in the denominator. Since those extra questions are rarely asked, ambiguity usually ends up as a no. Is this appropriate? Who would ever know?

When it comes time to prepare a report, the computer will always produce a report. It will be dutifully submitted. The fact that the requirement to submit a report was fulfilled will be noted. The reported results will be assumed to mean whatever it was supposed to mean. Decisions will be made and actions initiated and whether they work out as expected or not, it will be difficult to know whether the outcome was the result of chance or the result of accurate information.

The problem is not restricted to yes/no questions. The way computers work is that data is stored in "cells" within the memory. Each type of data that the programming language allows uses a pre-defined number of cells to hold each datum. For example, an integer may use two cells.

Let's consider a data element such as body weight that will be stored as a decimal. When the program starts, the memory cells allocated for body weight must either be initialized to contain something or nothing. There is obviously no rationale for initializing the cell to something, because how would you decide what that something should be: 10, 50, or 100? The seemingly logical choice is to initialize the body weight memory cells to nothing, but nothing in a decimal cell is indistinguishable from zero.

But wait — no patient has a weight of zero! The cell should be initialized to "NOT WEIGHED" but it can't be — this is a decimal cell.
Instead, it is assumed to not be a problem because when the patient is weighed, an actual weight will be entered and the cell will no longer contain a zero.

But wait again. What if, for some reason the patient is not weighed? It may not have been indicated. Perhaps the patient weighed more than the capacity of the scale or was in a wheel chair and could not stand on the scale. Under these conditions, when that record is stored, the body weight memory cells will still contain that initial zero, but what does it mean? It's anyone's guess.

By the way, those true/false cells all get initialized to false when the program starts, so for each one that does not get a "yes" entered into it, they all get stored as false. Again, no one will ever know whether the question was asked and the answer was false or if the question was never asked or if the clinician forgot to make the entry.

Lurking ambiguity turns denominators into meaningless mush. That is no reason not to comply with reporting requirements, but it may be a good reason not to impose them at this time. It is also a good reason to be very skeptical of "quality" reports and the so-called evidence that is behind some "evidence-based" medicine.

Find out more about Dan Essin and our other Practice Notes bloggers.

 

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by Daniel Essin | May 01, 2012 8:39 PM EDT

Thanks to Bob Hapner for the incredibly detail information on the rates at which physicians and hospitals have been signing on the the government's incentive program.

Bob asks the same questions that are implied in what I have been regaling you with in one form or another:
Why the poor attestation showing for doctors?
Are doctors not going to do it?

I'm inclined to stick with existing analysis when attempting to answer these questions.

Physicians are not stupid. While someone like me can rattle on for hours about the technicalities of various computer systems and how the problems that users experience can be traced to underlying technical and design flaws, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know when you find something crazy or unpleasant. Physicians tend to have excellent powers of observation, keen intellect, good reasoning ability and are acutely sensitive to things that interfere with them doing their work.

Who wouldn't be reluctant to adopt one of today's typical EHRs. If you've had a bad experience or have heard of one, skepticism is the only rational response. My question would be not why have so few adopted, but Why have so many adopted?

As to the future of the government scheme - It is certainly possible to wear many people down given sufficient intrusion, pestering, threats, penalties and generally making life difficult for them. Eventually there will be physicians who adopt just to get the government off their back or they will leave private practice and become the employee of some delivery system. If Graduate Medical Education is any indicator of the future, doctors will be employees, they will unionize, they will have work hour restrictions and, if their employers want them to use an EHR, those employers will have to deal with the inefficiency and the higher overhead that comes from each physician being limited in the number of patients that they can see because of the number of hours of each workday that are consumed by "computer work". If you doubt this, it's already happening to Kaiser. While still profitable, Kaiser is spending a large portion of what would otherwise be profit on expenses associated with their computerization.

Either new systems will appear that eliminate these problems or EHR will sink medicine as we know it. The government is wasting the taxpayer's money by throwing it away on bribes to get people to use the existing junk when it should be using that money to fund a "from the ground up" program of research and development. Getting the entire country using effective EHRs is at least as big a project as putting a man on the moon and it should be approached that way - not simply left to government regulators.

To really get the flavor of how profoundly wrong most EHRs are, you might watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt1BPvMbNpk

by BOB HAPNER | April 30, 2012 1:55 PM EDT

After 18 months (10-1-2010 to 3-31-2012) of MU eligibility for hospitals and 15 months (1-1-2011 to 3-31-20120) for physicians (EPs) :

Physicians(EPs)
• 1 of every 64 Georgia EPs has attested and received a Medicare incentive payment
• State Medicaid EP attestations are not published
• 1 of every 7 EPs (nationally) has attested and received a Medicare or Medicaid incentive payment
• 447,905 EPs have not attested (521,850 eligible) to Medicare or Medicaid
• 85% of all EPs have not attested to Medicare or Medicaid

Hospitals
• 1 of every 4 Georgia rural hospitals has attested and received a Medicare or Medicaid incentive payment or both incentive payments
• 1 of every 9 Georgia hospitals has attested and received a Medicare
• State Medicaid hospital attestations are not published
• 1 of every 2 hospitals (nationally) has attested and received a Medicare or Medicaid incentive payment or both incentive payments
• 2318 hospitals have not attested (4985 eligible) to either Medicare or Medicaid
• 46% of all eligible hospitals have not attested to either Medicare or Medicaid

Assuming it is more complex for a hospital to transform (go digital/EHR) than for a doctor office or clinic …why the poor attestation showing for doctors? Are doctors not going to do it?

Thoughts?


Background information:
CMS provides lists of Medicare paid providers: hospitals and EPs (physicians and other professionals).
• Approximate number of Georgia rural hospitals is 55 (Link 7). As of January 1, 2012, there were 13 (latest data from HTH Conference at St. Simons Island) listed as paid/attested (Medicare or Medicaid or both EHR incentives). This is about 24 %.
• Approximate number of Georgia physicians is 20,500 (Link 3). As of January 1, 2012 (Link 2 & 4), there were 322 EPs (physicians, PAs, NPs, DDSs etc.) listed as paid/attested (Medicare EHR incentives). This less than 2%.
• Medicaid incentive payments are managed by DCH and are not published in Georgia.
• Nationally there are 521,850 EPs (Link 6). As of March 2012, there were 148,476 EPs registered (Link 4), which is 28%. Of these registered EPs, 73,945 (Link 4)were paid/attested (either Medicare or Medicaid EHR incentives), which is 14%.
• Nationally there are 4,985 (5,000) acute care, critical access, and other hospitals (Link 5) eligible to receive CMS EHR incentives. As of March 2012, there were 3,483 hospitals registered (Link 4), which is 70%. Of these registered hospitals, 2,667 (Link 4) were paid/attested (either Medicare = 911, Medicaid = 1756, or both = 1706 EHR incentives) which is 53%.
• Georgia has 149 hospitals (Link 8) eligible for CMS Incentives (excluding long-term care, rehabilitation, psychiatric, State, Veterans, and military hospitals) 24 are listed as receiving Medicare incentive payments or 16%.

1. Link to Medicare paid hospitals by state: http://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/EHRIncentivePrograms/downloads//List_of_hospitals_paid.pdf
2. Link to Medicare paid eligible professionals:
http://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/EHRIncentivePrograms/downloads//List_of_providers_paid.pdf
3. Link to physician workforce statistics: https://www.aamc.org/download/263512/data/statedata2011.pdf
4. Link to CMS latest monthly payment and registration report : https://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/EHRIncentivePrograms/downloads//Monthly_Payment_Registration_Report_Updated.pdf
5. Link to AHA Fast Facts: http://www.aha.org/research/rc/stat-studies/fast-facts.shtml
6. Link to site quoting the number of CMS eligible professionals on page 5: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/cir/cir-meaningful-ehr-use.pdf
7. Link to site quoting the number of HTH Hospitals in Georgia: http://www.hometownhealthonline.com/Members/MemberHospitals.aspx
8. Link to site listing hospitals in Georgia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hospitals_in_Georgia_(U.S._state)

More from Daniel Essin

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Imagining a Day in Medical Practice with a Possible Future of EHR

EHR Interoperability: I'll Know It When I See It

'Content Neutrality' and Why It Is Important for EHR

The Perils of Over Specification and Underspecification in EHR Systems

IBM's Watson: Has the Time Come for Expert Systems in Medicine?

With Any EHR, Theory is Important but So is Practicality

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The Probable Consequences of EHR Certification are Scary

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Interoperability in Healthcare – Easy to Say, Hard to Do

EHRs: Weighing Incentives and What's Best for Patients

With EHRs, Sometimes Less is More

EHR Systems Should Be Taking Larger Strides, But Aren't

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