Oncotype DX DCIS Score
Substantial effort has been put into developing multigene assays to help delineate low-risk patient populations. The Oncotype DX DCIS Score is a 12-gene expression assay for DCIS that estimates the 10-year risk of any local recurrence (DCIS or invasive) following treatment with BCT without RT. Among 327 patients who were enrolled in the ECOG-ACRIN 5194 study, the DCIS score was shown to predict an individual’s risk of developing local recurrence. For DCIS low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, the 10-year risk of an ipsilateral breast event were 10.6%, 26.7%, and 25.9%, respectively. For invasive cancer events, the risks were 3.7%, 12.3%, and 19.2%, respectively. The authors concluded that RT may be omitted in the low- and intermediate-risk groups, but should be included in the treatment of the high-risk group.[63]
These findings were confirmed in a larger patient population–based cohort by Rakovitch et al, who correlated the Oncotype DX DCIS Score with outcomes in a study of 3,320 patients. The study demonstrated that the Oncotype DX DCIS Score correlated with local recurrence risk (low, 12.7%; intermediate, 33%; high, 27.8%), albeit with less discrimination than was seen with the ECOG-ACRIN 5194 dataset. Compared with the population in the ECOG-ACRIN 5194 trial, this larger, more diverse patient population was higher risk, and was comprised of 32% high-grade DCIS and 45% with margin width between 1 mm and 3 mm. Despite these differences, the risks of local recurrence in each prespecified DCIS risk group were strikingly similar between the two studies.[64] These results demonstrate that multigene assays may have a promising role in stratifying risk for DCIS patients and will likely play a prominent role in future management.
To date, other prognostic biomarkers have shown limited ability to discriminate between low- and high-risk DCIS. Advances in the field have been hampered by a lack of consensus on what constitutes the most meaningful outcome, with many studies focused on predictors of ipsilateral breast recurrence, but other more recent studies targeting markers of invasive progression. Single markers such as ER, Ki-67, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) have shown some correlation with outcome.[65] Moreover, combined marker sets such as Ki-67, COX-2, and p16,[66] as well as constructed tumor phenotype,[67] will likely show some prognostic value but will require validation in independent datasets.
Active Surveillance
The appreciation of the wide heterogeneity of DCIS with variable malignant potential has generated interest in delineating which patients should be treated aggressively vs safely, or followed with close monitoring. It is clear that high-grade DCIS is more biologically aggressive and can lead to invasive cancer, in addition to harboring occult malignancy. Low- and intermediate-grade DCIS accounts for 30% of screen-detected DCIS, and its malignant potential is less assured. Thus, there are studies now underway to define the feasibility of adopting surveillance, rather than a surgical approach, for biologically favorable DCIS.
The “low risk” (LORIS) DCIS trial is a phase III, randomized, noninferiority trial of surgery vs active monitoring in low-risk DCIS patients, which was initiated in Europe in 2014.[68] It randomizes patients with low- or intermediate-grade DCIS to either surgery or active surveillance without endocrine therapy. The primary objective of the study is the comparison of ipsilateral and invasive disease–free survival time between the active monitoring and surgery arms. Secondary objectives will include overall survival and time to development of ipsilateral and contralateral cancers. In the United States, this question will also be addressed by the COMET (Comparison of Operative vs Medical Endocrine Therapy for Low-Risk DCIS) trial. Eligibility for the study will be limited to low- and intermediate-grade DCIS that is ER- and/or PR-positive and HER2-negative (Figure 3). Participants will be randomized to receive either standard guideline-concordant care with usual follow-up, or active surveillance with a mammogram of the index breast every 6 months for 5 years. Patients in the active surveillance arm will be strongly encouraged to pursue endocrine therapy. A third study of low-risk DCIS sponsored by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, the LORD (LOw Risk DCIS) study, is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2016.
All three studies are based on the high sensitivity of modern mammographic surveillance, as well as the excellent long-term outcomes of DCIS patients, even for those who develop early-stage invasive cancer. Together, these trials will provide valuable evidence showing whether a surveillance approach compromises survival after diagnosis of DCIS. An additional important aspect of these trials will be the collection of patient-reported outcomes, which will determine whether such a surveillance strategy could be acceptable to patients. Important metrics to assess in both the treatment and surveillance arms are the long-term effects on psychological and physical quality of life associated with the different management approaches for DCIS. Ultimately, patients and providers will be able to use this evidence to determine whether the trade-offs of one approach vs another align with an individual patient’s health and quality-of-life goals.
Cost vs Value
Thus far, the only study to look at the cost burden of overtreatment of DCIS was published by Ong et al, which looked at the estimated national expense of overtreating DCIS, as well as of false-positive mammograms.[69] The authors estimated the cost of DCIS overdiagnosis by applying the average cost of DCIS treatment ($12,369) to the published DCIS overdiagnosis rate (86%), with the total resulting in $243 million annually. Of note, this was also thought to be an underestimate, since the authors specifically looked at DCIS ICD-9 codes to determine this figure and they believed that some cases of DCIS could have been misclassified as invasive cancer.
Other factors that may change this estimate include the overdiagnosis rate and re-excision rate, which is more common for DCIS patients. The overdiagnosis rate was based on a series of small studies of patients who were previously misdiagnosed with benign disease, did not receive treatment, and were subsequently diagnosed with DCIS. In the largest of these series, 14% went on to develop invasive cancer.[70] In addition, because obtaining negative margins for DCIS is more challenging due to skip lesions, it has been reported that up to 40% of women with DCIS require a second operation, at an average cost of $11,000 per re-excision.[24]
Although provocative, these estimates only provide a general calculation of the cost of overtreatment, and must be balanced against the trade-offs of continued surveillance, possible anxiety, and diagnosis of subsequent invasive cancer. One model of cancer progression indicates that the cost of such trade-offs are highly dependent on patient factors such as age at diagnosis; in the future, these considerations will further help refine management of DCIS.[71]
Conclusion
The significant rise in the incidence of DCIS since the implementation of routine screening mammography has resulted in the appreciation of the vast biologic heterogeneity of this disease entity. Moving forward, the traditional approach of surgery, RT, and endocrine therapy will need to be revisited as the active investigation into risk stratification using molecular and clinical parameters continues. Development of personalized therapy based on risk assessment is the future goal to reduce morbidity, psychological impact, and healthcare burden of this disease.
Financial Disclosure:The authors have no significant financial interest in or other relationship with the manufacturer of any product or provider of any service mentioned in this article.
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