(P103) A New Score Predicts Survival in Patients With Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

April 30, 2015

Prognostic factors that were significantly associated with survival on both UV and MV analyses were used to construct a valid scoring system that can be used to predict survival of NSCLC patients. The score can be used for trial stratification or for choosing patients specifically for high-risk trials. Optimally, this score will be helpful when counseling patients and designing future trials.

Steven E. Schild, MD, Angelina D. Tan, BS, BA, Jason A. Wampfler, BS, Julian R. Molina, MD, PhD, Helen J. Ross, MD, Ping Yang, MD, PhD, Jeff A. Sloan, PhD; Mayo Clinic

PURPOSE: This analysis was performed to create a scoring system to estimate the survival of patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS: Data from 1,274 NSCLC patients were analyzed to create and validate a scoring system. Univariate (UV) and multivariate (MV) Cox models were used to evaluate the prognostic importance of each baseline factor. Prognostic factors that were significant on both univariate and multivariate analyses were used to develop the score. They included quality of life, age, performance status, primary tumor diameter, nodal status, distant metastases, and smoking cessation. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 5-year survival rate (%) by 10 and summing these scores to form a total score. Multivariate models and the score were validated using bootstrapping with 1,000 iterations from the original samples.

RESULTS: The score for each factor ranged from 1–7 points, with higher scores reflective of better survival. Total scores of 32–37 correlated with a 5-year survival of 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0%–17.1%), 38–43 correlated with a 5-year survival of 20% (95% CI, 13%–27%), 44–47 correlated with a 5-year survival of 48.3% (95% CI, 41.5%–55.2%), 48–49 correlated to a 5-year survival of 72.1% (95% CI, 65.6%–78.6%), and 50–52 correlated to a 5-year survival of 84.7% (95% CI, 79.6%–89.8%). The bootstrap method confirmed the reliability of the score.

CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic factors that were significantly associated with survival on both UV and MV analyses were used to construct a valid scoring system that can be used to predict survival of NSCLC patients. The score can be used for trial stratification or for choosing patients specifically for high-risk trials. Optimally, this score will be helpful when counseling patients and designing future trials.

Proceedings of the 97th Annual Meeting of the American Radium Society - americanradiumsociety.org