Modifiable Risk Factors Suggest Potential for Improving Cancer Prevention

Approximately 4 of 10 cancer cases in 2022 may have been averted by avoiding exposure to key preventable risk factors, according to findings from a global analysis study published in Nature Medicine.¹

Of 18.7 million cancer cases recorded in 2022, approximately 7.1 million (37.8%) were linked to modifiable risk factors. Cancer cases due to modifiable risk factors were reported in 29.7% of women with cancer compared with 45.4% of men. The highest cancer burden for female populations was observed in sub-Saharan Africa, where 38.2% of cases were linked to modifiable risk factors; male populations experienced the highest burden in East Asia, where 57.2% of cases were associated with such risk factors.

Across the world, new cancer cases in women were typically linked to infections (11.5%), smoking (6.3%), and high body mass index (BMI; 3.4%). Among male patients, the most common risk factors associated with cancer cases included smoking (23.1%), infections (9.1%), and alcohol consumption (4.6%).

Data showed that 477,869 of new lung cancer cases among women were preventable, as these diagnoses were related to smoking (60.5%), air pollution (27.5%), and occupational exposures (12.0%). Among male patients with lung cancer, 1,326,453 cases were preventable; these diagnoses were linked to smoking (69.4%), air pollution (15.8%), and occupational exposure (14.7%). In female populations, other cancer diagnoses that were attributable to preventable risk factors included breast cancer (n = 453,515), cervical cancer (n = 662,004), and stomach cancer (n = 272,763); for male patients, preventable cancer diagnoses included stomach cancer (n = 511,309), liver cancer (n = 461,985), and colorectal cancer (n = 371,331).

“This is the first global analysis to show how much cancer risk comes from causes we can prevent. By examining patterns across countries and population groups, we can provide governments and individuals with more specific information to help prevent many cancer cases before they start,” study author André Ilbawi, MD, from the Department of Communicable and Noncommunicable Diseases at the World Health Organization (WHO) and WHO Team Lead for Cancer Control, stated in a press release regarding these findings.²

Study authors sought to provide estimated incidences for cancer types that are associated with a wide range of modifiable risk factors. Risk factors of interest included tobacco smoking, consumption of alcohol, high BMI, insufficient physical activity, suboptimal breastfeeding, air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, infections, and occupational exposures. Investigators collected data on cancer incidences from 185 countries in 2022.

Regarding potential policy implications stemming from these findings, study authors noted that reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors may be an effective, sustainable strategy for preventing new cancer cases. New policies focusing on tobacco control measures and strengthened vaccination or screening programs, for example, may help address local disease patterns and prevalent risk factors. The authors also noted a need for gender-sensitive approaches, which may include increased HPV vaccination access.

“This landmark study is a comprehensive assessment of preventable cancer worldwide, incorporating for the first time infectious causes of cancer alongside behavioral, environmental, and occupational risks,” senior study author Isabelle Soerjomataram, MD, PhD, deputy head of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Cancer Surveillance Unit, said in the press release.² “Addressing these preventable causes represents one of the most powerful opportunities to reduce the global cancer burden.”

According to the study authors, variable data quality across countries represented a key limitation to their investigation. The available data also facilitated assumptions of consistent relative risks and simplified modeling that treated exposures independently despite known clustering and interactions. The authors noted that these limitations may have introduced uncertainty and yielded underestimations of true preventable cancer burdens, especially among areas with limited surveillance.

References

1. Fink H, Langselius O, Vignat J, et al. Global and regional cancer burden attributable to modifiable risk factors to inform prevention. Nat Med. Published online February 3, 2026. doi:10.1038/s41591-026-04219-7
2. Four in ten cancer cases could be prevented globally. News release. WHO. February 3, 2026. Accessed February 4, 2026. https://tinyurl.com/3cz7f8an